Saturday, December 4, 2010

Breakeven, and Loving it.

Well, it’s the end of the week, and while I’d love to regale you all with stories of how I’m just raking in the cash, truth be told, I’m not. That is not to say I’m losing my ass, but I have played the last few days at just over breakeven.
                Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not disappointed at all. In fact, I’m quite happy with myself. Why would I be happy with breakeven you ask? It’s like this my friends; I have played in 22 tourneys in the past three days without a loss. In fact, I’m actually up around $12 and change (I consider that break-even due to the fact a lot of that is rakeback). The real reason I’m happy with my play is because after 22 games, I have had small downswings, but have made that back and overall have not lost one dollar.
                I have read that some of the best players see swings of 20, 30+ tourneys where they see no profit. Now, I am by no means comparing myself to the best. I am not near that level at all. I am just putting this into perspective. 22 tourneys without a loss. I assure you, I have gone 50+ without making a dime and losing every one of my buy-ins, so I am very pleased with my play for the week.
                After a losing session on Wednesday, I took most of Thursday off for more study and reflection on my game. Looking through the details of my stats (thank you PT3) I found that over a 11K+ sample of saved hands, my 3-bet % was a lowly 1.3%. Pitiful. I have since opened up my 3 and 4-bet range slightly and have seen better results. I have also been tinkering with my pre flop raise ranges, as I have also been opening too tight and thus polarizing my range.  Change is scary, but I have been seeing better results when used properly, so I know this is a change for the better.
                Now, at the limits I play, most of my opponents aren’t really paying attention to opening/3-bet, 4-bet ranges, but those who are were exploiting the shit out of me.
                I have also been re-defining my flatting vs. folding vs. 3/4-bet ranges and when I do each, and while I don’t have any concrete results as of yet, I feel with some ironing out this change is also helping my overall game strategy. For example, here’s a hand I played today where I opened up my 4-bet range and won the hand instead of calling/checking/folding to the board and my two opponents.
Full Tilt - $2 + $0.20|15/30 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: 2,955.00
UTG: 2,085.00
UTG+1: 3,082.00
Hero (MP): 2,925.00
CO: 3,000.00
BTN: 2,955.00
SB: 3,023.00

SB posts SB 15.00, BB posts BB 30.00

Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has
    9h 9c

UTG calls 30.00, fold, Hero raises to 120.00, fold, BTN raises to 450.00, fold, fold, UTG calls 420.00, Hero raises to 930.00, BTN calls 480.00, UTG calls 480.00

Flop: (2835.00, 3 players)
      4h Kc 5c
UTG checks, Hero bets 1,995.00 and is all-in, fold, fold

Hero wins 2,835.00

                In this example, if I were to just flat call my opponents c-bet, I would be either forced to check/fold the flop, or lead out and have to deal with a raise against me. I say deal with a raise against me, because in most situations, the aggressor (BTN) has control of the hand, and since he placed the 3-bet, he can bet this flop and have everyone involved in the hand believe he has AK or better. By 4-betting, I took control of the hand back from the BTN, showing massive strength, and was thus able to win the hand on the flop against two opponents.
                 Keep in mind that this example was not taken in a vacuum. I had been showing down solid hands, if any went to showdown and had been playing tight up until that point. I feel this was key to the success of my play on this hand. Had I been splashing around a lot of pots and 3 or 4-betting everything, I would have had a lot less credibility and thus probably been called (or 5-bet shoved on) light. Also, by contrast, BTN had been splashing around, 3-betting very wide, and I really had no reads on UTG since he was new to the table, though I assumed by limping then calling this large raise he was just on a fishing expedition and would probably play fit/fold (make a hand or fold) on the flop.
Once I can comfortably work this into my game, I feel the next move is to work on my squeeze play. Honestly, I have never been adept at the squeeze play. I always seem to pull it at the wrong time and bust from the tourney. But that will come later. Still need to work out other details first.
                Anyways, enough about that as I can’t give away everything I’m doing. I’m going to take the weekend off, maaaybe dabble in a few SNG’s if I have some spare time. Then it’s back to work on Monday.
                Enjoy the weekend folks!

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